If you believe that Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller can happily co-exist then this article isn’t for you. If you believe (as I do) that one of the two must be the cream that rises to the top, then it’s time to go with your gut gamer, and put your money on your horse. This race will have a winner and a runner up – just like any other race.
The Background:
When Buddy Nix nabbed Clemson RB C.J. Spiller with the 9th overall pick in 2010 there were many a Spockean eyebrow raised. What about the glaring need at left tackle? Buddy wanted the best player available, and felt like he got him. He made a similar call with the Chargers in 2001 when he traded down (bypassing Mike Vick) and selected LaDainian Tomlinson. I think we all know how that worked out (so we’re clear – it worked out spectacularly well).
Problem being – C.J., for all his college pedigree and combine prowess, couldn’t get on the field enough to validate the pick until F-Jax snapped a leg. For a year and a half we heard Chan Gailey issue empty promises about a prominent role for the Clemson standout. When it was all said and done, we were left crying over ‘Spillered’ milk. Simply put, Fred Jackson was too complete a back to get Spiller the touches Chan wanted him to have.
Enter 2011 and Fred Jackson’s misfortune. NOW we would finally be able to evaluate the commodity Buffalo had next up on the RB depth chart. Spiller played 5 full games in 2011, after F-Jax’ placement on the Injured Reserve list on November 23rd. His 2011 stat-line ended up being 561-4 Rushing, 39-269-2 Receiving. Those numbers extrapolate very well over a 16 game slate.
The Dilemma:
So….now we’ve got multiple backs who’ve proven they can run between the tackles, snap off big runs to the outside, have soft hands, and can protect the passer. Essentially we’ve got 2 every down backs. Defaut time-share or a problem that will resolve itself? I say the latter.
The Argument for Jackson
Fred Jackson is the incumbent. He was having a monster season before tragedy struck. He has a new contract (nobody likes that kind of money serving as depth). Most importantly, we’ve heard for 2 years straight that C.J. Spiller’s role will grow and he’ll share touches out of the backfield and as a receiver. For 2 years straight, Freddy has effectively crazy-glued C.J.’s butt to the bench by playing so well that Gailey has no choice but to give him the ball. The upside of putting in Spiller simply isn’t there the way Freddy has played when healthy. Expect that to continue, health permitting. Gailey has to say what he says every year, it’s good politics and maybe even well-intentioned. Actions speak louder than words though.
The Argument for Spiller
There is a big difference between thinking you have an electric, every down playmaker capable of taking it to the house on any given play, and knowing that you do. Jackson’s injury was a terrible tragedy for everybody but C.J. Spiller, who used the opportunity to host his NFL coming out party (albeit overdue). Gailey has a legitimate problem with touches this year. Aside from the usual arguments of Jackson being old (‘but he’s a young 30+’), Jackson coming off an injury, Buddy needing to show his pick wasn’t a bad one, etc etc – Spiller has Gailey’s and Fitzpatrick’s trust now. As great as Jackson has been playing in Buffalo for the last couple of years, Spiller’s ceiling is simply higher. He has Chris Johnson speed with more between the tackles pop. He’s the real deal and Buffalo now knows it.
The Conclusion:
The conclusion is simple. As nice as it is to say you’re going to keep both backs fresh and use a RBBC approach, the fact is one guy always outplays the other. One guy often (read: always) gets hurt in today’s NFL. With an improved Buffalo D this year creating short fields and potentially having the Bills protecting leads instead of playing catchup, you want a piece of this elite running game in your fantasy portfolio. Fitzy and Stevie Johnson can’t to it themselves. The Bills still don’t have a reliable TE or WR2 to go to, so the RB will factor heavily in the passing game. I still can’t tell you which back is going to take your team to the top (I’m not Columbo!) but I can assure you that either Jackson’s price tag (currently going mid-late 3rd round at pick ADP 33) or Spiller’s (currently going mid-late rounds at ADP 92) is grossly underestimating the value of the asset. The risk/reward for either is off the charts, and whichever one falls to you should be snapped up post haste.
