There are many articles this time of year debating whether Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, or Ryan Braun should be the first overall pick in fantasy baseball. However, the key to winning your league will likely not be determined by who you picked first but by whom you picked in the later rounds. One way to pick a good hitter in later rounds is to look at players’ per at bat stats. My personal favorite measure is 600(home runs + net stolen bases)/at bats. I use net stolen bases because a player who gets caught too often in the previous year will probably not get as many chances to run in the next year. By multiplying by 600/AB, you standardize the number of at bats each player gets. Although you need to consider which players will be platooning, starting the season in the minors, or are prone to injuries, standardizing per at bat stats allows you to find the players who got a chance the previous year and who might be full time players this year.
To bolster my argument, let’s look at players with over 100 at bats in 2011 who broke 40 in this stat (in descending order).
1. Matt Kemp
2. Brent Lillibridge
3. Ryan Braun
4. Brett Lawrie
5. Desmond Jennings
6. Curtis Grandson
7. Carlos Gomez
8. Ian Kinsler
9. Jose Bautista
10. Coco Crisp
11. Eric Patterson
12. Jason Kipnis
13. Mike Napoli
14. Will Venable
15. Jacoby Ellsbury
16. Carlos Gonzalez
17. B.J. Upton
18. Chris Heisey
19. Allen Craig
20. Albert Pujols
21. Paul Goldschmidt
22. John Mayberry
23. Drew Stubbs
24. Mike Trout
25. Justin Upton
26. Alejandro De Aza
27. Mark Teixiera
28. Eduardo Nunez
29. Roger Bernadina
30. Nolan Reimold
31. Matt Joyce
32. Troy Tulowitzki
33. Jimmy Rollins
34. Angel Pagan
35. Prince Fielder
As can be seen, this list has a varied mix of all stars and peripheral players. Although many people criticize relying on small sample sizes to extrapolate a full season, I used this stat last year to target Jason Kipnis, Allen Craig, and Paul Goldschmidt. For my 2012 team, they produced a combined 56 home runs and 40 net stolen bases. For late round draft picks, this was gold. Although none of them quite lived up to their per at bat projections, they each ended up way higher than others projected. In case you were wondering, yes, I’m still kicking myself for not drafting Mike Trout despite his showing up on my list.
So, based on how successful this statistic was from 2011 for the 2012 season, who made the cut in 2012?
1. Tony Campana
2. Mike Trout
3. Darin Mastroianni
4. Carlos Gomez
5. Emilio Bonifacio
6. Ryan Braun
7. Everth Cabrera
8. Dewayne Wise
9. Coco Crisp
10. Edwin Encarnacion
11. B.J. Upton
12. Eric Young
13. Rajai Davis
14. Mike Stanton
15. Jose Bautista
16. Jarrod Dyson
17. Curtis Granderson
18. Tyler Moore
19. Desmond Jennings
20. Jordan Schafer
21. Josh Hamilton
22. Brandon Moss
23. Quentin Berry
24. Juan Pierre
25. Jordany Valdespin
26. Anthony Gose
27. Ian Desmond
28. Adam Dunn
29. Lorenzo Cain
30. Jimmy Rollins
31. Dee Gordon
32. Miguel Cabrera
33. Drew Stubbs
34. Roger Bernadina
35. Shane Victorino
36. Brent Lillibridge
37. Chris Carter
38. Justin Maxwell
39. Yoenis Cespedes
40. Starling Marte
41. Jonny Gomes
42. Jay Bruce
43. Carlos Gonzalez
44. Carlos Beltran
45. Mike Napoli
46. Michael Saunders
47. Alexi Casilla
48. Chase Utley
49. Chase Headley
50. Matt Kemp
51. Alex Rios
52. Josh Willingham
53. Scott Hairston
54. Josh Reddick
55. Wilin Rosario
56. Jason Heyward
57. Paul Goldschmidt
58. David Ortiz
59. Nate McLouth
60. Will Middlebrooks
As you can see, the list for 2012 is almost twice as long. Regardless, the trick to finding good sleepers is to look for who surprises you by being on this list and who will get lots of at bats this year. The names that jump off the list for me are Carlos Gomez, Brandon Moss, and Chris Carter. Although solid cases could be made for almost everyone on this list, these three players are going late in drafts and have solidified starting roster spots. Carlos Gomez’s career stats match those of Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton, yet for some reason he is going much later. Brandon Moss and Chris Carter both look to be absolute mashers. The fact that they made a list measuring HR+NSB without stealing any bases indicates that both have solid potential of hitting 40 bombs this year, which is amazing for a last round pick. Players on this list are not flawless. Some strike out too much (Drew Stubbs, Adam Dunn), some are getting old (Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Adam Dunn, David Ortiz), some face competition for at bats (Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Moore), and others will likely end up in the minors (Anthony Gose). Still, using this metric as a way to search for sleepers is a great way to strike gold.
