Houston Rockets
Coach: Jeff Van Gundy, 4th Season (130-116)
General Manager: Carroll Dawson
‘05-’06 Record: 34-48, Last Southwest Division
Projected Starting Lineup (’05-’06 Stats)
PG – Rafer Alston (12.1 ppg., 4.0 rpg., 6.7 apg.)
SG – Bonzi Wells (w/SAC: 13.6 ppg., 7.7 rpg., 2.8 apg.)
SF – Tracy McGrady (24.4 ppg., 6.5 rpg., 4.8 apg.)
PF – Shane Battier (w/MEM: 10.1 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 1.7 apg.)
C – Yao Ming (22.3 ppg., 10.2 rpg., 1.5 apg.)
Key Additions: SF Shane Battier (trade – MEM); SF Kirk Snyder (trade – NO)
Key Subtractions: PF Stromile Swift (trade – MEM); SF Keith Bogans (UFA – ORL); SG David Wesley (UFA – CLE)
2006 NBA Draft
Round 1 – N/A
Round 2 – SF Steve Novak (32nd overall), Marquette University; SF Lior Eliahu (44th overall), International – Israel
Positional Breakdowns
Guards
What the Rockets need out of the point guard position is someone who can give them some stability and be consistent, something that incumbent starter Rafer Alston couldn’t give them last season. He had more ups and downs than the stock exchange. Alston does give the Rockets a lot when he’s on his game, a reliable ball-handler who can keep the team’s pace up and allow them to get quick scoring chances. They really want to see Alston give them something more consistent when it comes to perimeter scoring. Alston has seen his 3-point totals drop significantly each of his past two seasons, having only 102 last season after having 139 the season before and 161 the year before that. They want him to be able to stretch out the floor and keep defenses honest offensively, because without that Yao Ming will probably see more double-teams come from the top. Alston will also have to play better defense. This isn’t street ball, he isn’t going to be able to stick around by just being good offensively. He’s going to have to be the complete package to stick around for them long-term.
Bonzi Wells comes over from Sacramento, but he’ll remain a question mark as long as his health isn’t 100%. The fact is that his health issues have kept him from really being able to find his place in the Rockets’ system and they just aren’t sure how he’ll fit. They could use his low-post ability, which is great for a guard and could open up more floor for a perimeter shooter. He’ll most likely be the third option when he’s on the floor with the starting unit because Tracy McGrady will be first and second, respectively. Wells can take over and score in bunches should the require it, for instance if McGrady is having an off-night or if they are focused too much on McGrady or Yao Ming. Wells has said that his motivation now is simply to win a championship, although you have to wonder whether or not the Rockets have what it takes to turn it around so quickly. Wells made himself look much better during the postseason with the Kings and if he can give the Rockets that kind of production then we could easily be talking about how big his addition was to the team.
There is a ton of talent on the Rockets’ bench that is just looking for a chance to breakout and show what they’ve got. They do have established veteran Bob Sura on the bench, but his health has been a question over the past few years as well, and he could be due for right knee surgery, in which case his season would be over and his career would be in serious jeopardy. John Lucas III has played brilliantly in the preseason thus far and could have earned himself some significant minutes in the regular season. The Rockets are also high on Kirk Snyder. Snyder is a solid shooter who will be looked upon to be more rounded offensively and become and inside-outside player. Luther Head has been playing well lately and could be ready to step into the regular rotation.
Forwards
There are few offensive options in the NBA more explosive than Tracy McGrady. He’s got what it takes to carry a team through some long stretches with his play should it be necessary. However, the question of health has surrounded him after a season of uncertainty and injuries. The Rockets are still using him as the centerpiece of their franchise, and remember that McGrady himself is still only 27 and going into the prime of his NBA career. He’s a scoring threat from almost anywhere on the court. You have to always be aware of where he is at all times. He’s never going to be an elite defender but you have to give him credit for trying to improve his defense and his hustling. The question is whether or not McGrady can lead this team any further or if he’s made it to his glass ceiling. He only played 47 games last season and even though he’s only 27 you have to wonder what 9 seasons in the NBA has done to his body. If he can be completely healthy and get help from players like Yao and new acquisitions Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells, they could get back to the playoffs. McGrady will have to handle if from there.
Meanwhile, Jeff Van Gundy is showing that he’s willing to mix it up and try something new. That, of course, comes in the form of playing Battier as the team’s power forward. Battier is a gem that the Rockets are going to get so much from. It was amazing to me that the Grizzlies were willing to give him up, even if they received Rudy Gay from the Rockets, but Battier is now in Houston and he instantly will add a handful of wins to the record. Battier is a solid shooter who can hit jumpers even with hands in his face, a great passer who’s adept at making great decisions, and a versatile defender who can shut an opposing player down. The first task that Van Gundy sees in coaching Battier is to get him to be more offensive-minded. They want him to take more shots and get going early, only if to take the pressure off McGrady as the game progresses. Having him be solid offensively will also open up Yao Ming for more opportunities to score around the basket. Battier can also get his points without he luxury of having sets for him, which might be something he’ll need to do with regularity because of the other offensive options on the Rockets.
The bench is full of players who are looking to establish themselves, so look for some heated competition in the preseason and some solid play as the season progresses. The big talk has been about rookie Steve Novak, who has shown an ability to be consistent with his jumper. They want him to be a better defender and a presence inside before they are willing to give him playing time, but if he can give them solid minutes then they could pair him up with other players who have inside ability, like Yao Ming or even to some degree McGrady. Chuck Hayes worked well in some parts of last season and has earned more time in Coach Van Gundy’s eyes. Juwan Howard was a starter last season but will mostly come off the bench as another option for either power forward or at center.
Centers
Yao Ming took some more leaps forward in his game last year. You could really see that he was being more aggressive and giving them more scoring and defense in the middle. He has really solidified himself as an NBA center and is working on getting even better. He is still going to be a question around the NBA because of the fact that many teams are looking to shift to smaller lineups and could render Yao Ming useless on the run. He can run, but most likely won’t keep that pace up for the entire time he’s on the court. Smaller players will begin to force Ming out of the painted area on defense, limiting his effectiveness on that side of the ball. You have to credit Houston and Jeff Van Gundy for working with him throughout the years and preparing him for the thing he would see in the NBA game. He’s probably the top true center in the Western Conference and could dominate the game in different ways as he continues to mature and get better.
While Ming is on the bench, you will see different players getting some time behind him. One option was to have Juwan Howard play more behind Ming at center and add some more offense to the position in the running game. Dikembe Mutombo will also see some time off the bench to cover Ming, but he’ll be there more for the defense. It’ll be interesting because we know that Mutombo is nearing the end of his career and it remains to be seen how effective he can still be up and down the court. Look for Mutombo to only get off the bench in certain situations.
Team Overview
It’s hard to believe that a team that won only 34 games last season and finished last in the Southeast Division could make such a quick turnaround and get back into the playoffs. In their defense, they were plagued with injuries to their top two players (McGrady and Ming) and never really got into any type of groove as a team. Rafer Alston was like his own private roller coaster game in and game out, and they just weren’t getting anything consistent defensively despite Coach Van Gundy’s emphasis on defense.
The formula for this season, however, is looking good in early returns for the Rockets. Bonzi Wells and Shane Battier give the Rockets more options on offense as well as two good defenders who can step in and help them immediately. Van Gundy will benefit greatly from Battier especially, because of his receptive personality and willingness to sacrifice for the team. Van Gundy has also shown his faith in Battier by making him a starter at the power forward position. Meanwhile, McGrady and Ming are fully healthy, so they could be back to running the offense. The biggest burning question is whether or not Rafer Alston can be consistent enough for them to be the difference. They could legitimately leapfrog some teams and get into the playoffs, but they are in a tough division with San Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis. They’ll compete, and I think they just could miss out on the playoffs but make a good, concentrated effort.
Predictions
Record: 36-46
Leading Scorer: Tracy McGrady
MVP: Shane Battier
Postseason: Will Not Qualify
