El Nino
La Niña
The Southern Oscillation.
Arctic Oscillation.
The Northern Oscillation.
What do these words weather wise mean for us and how will the 2012-2013 winter season proceed? Let’s say that as I type, I’m sleeping like crazy and it’s 38 F in Northern Arizona.
The terms listed above are the names of the semi-regular climactic variations that have the greatest influence on our winters in North America and throughout the world. While the Weather Channel gives them great explanations, each one can involve more text to fully understand. So things are a bit complicated. Let’s keep it simple and the El Nino and La Nina effects we see alternately, and we call the above causes “oscillations”.
Our storm began, according to informal phone as technical representations here and there, with a decent bang. Iowa said “it’s cold!” Flint Mountain has recently seen snow. We, in northern Arizona, saw the first snow on the peaks of San Francisco yesterday (Thursday, 11 October 2012). Snowbowl Resort on the “tops” claims on the radio that we’ll see a ski/sixty/snowboard sign of the year. Finally, in northern Arizona we saw a “monsoonal” rainy season that residents describe as “incredible”.
How we wish we could share everything with the drought-stricken parts of our country! And now, as it seems, we will wish in some cases; We wish it well, so it will be!
I procrastinated, waiting for evidence of a decent El Nino, that odd little phenomenon that causes ocean surface temperatures to rise in the Pacific. I waited and now I will see him very well.
The El Nino forecast is “Ly-Moderate”, and this is confirmed in several weather blogs from Weather.com and the National Weather Service. El Nino comin’!
In simple bullet form, taken from Accu-Tempest, here’s what to expect;
Expect wet conditions in California. This translated to heavier mountain snows in the Sierras and cross ranges of Southern California. In any fresh burn areas, consider sandbags!
Expect above normal snow in the intermontane Rockies. This whole lot is better than winter, which has little or nothing. Here in northern Arizona, where it is between 5,000 to 7,000 feet in elevation, we have almost no winter. We are expecting a lot of snow this year.
The East Coast should see a good band of snow from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Are you dreaming of a White Christmas yet?
deep South Florida will see cold and wet conditions.
Areas drier in El Nino patterns typically include Oregon, Washington and the Northern Tier states in the North-Central Midwest.
But what about that drought? The Farmer Almanac provides some interesting forecasts, in line with previous expectations, 80% accurate according to their site. They have good news for some areas of our drought: improvement. Of course, more is predicted on his website and in the Almanac: all worth reading.
So, in summary, the forecast (remember, this is a best guess and tends to the major trend) is looking for better drought in many areas, better ski workers (snow plow workers) in the East and West, and a little drier in Pacific Northwest. Check all the links for details in your area, and watch the skies for El Nino (in Spanish).
